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Still
Waiting:
A List
of Predictions
from the "UFO Culture"
by Martin S. Kottmeyer
Introduction
The collection of predictions that is presented here arose out of long
study of the UFO phenomenon. Most of them were sought out in the early
1980s during a period when I was interested in the application of
Murphy's law to UFO study. I had intended it as a chapter of a book I
was writing. During a bout of nostalgia I recently reread it and
decided to update it. One motive was a realization that this
information constitutes a fascinating measure for assessing the nature
of the UFO phenomenon and the quality of our collective thinking about
it. It is sometimes said that theories about it are unfalsifiable, yet
there is obviously a body of discourse here which not only can be
falsified; it has been.
It will be noticed that this collection contains references to
something known as Fetridge's Law. It was an important feature of the
original study and I have decided to retain it. Fetridge's Law derives
from an unfortunate fellow named Fetridge who ambitiously decided to do
a live broadcast of the return of the swallows to Capastrano. The
swallows were known to infallibly return each year to that town on a
certain date. Of course, that year the swallows decided to
procrastinate. The dictum learned from this debacle states, "Important
things that are supposed to happen do not happen, especially when
people are watching you."
The UFO phenomenon follows this law with almost spooky
conscientiousness. The few predictions that do come true in this
collection are always about basically unimportant things happening or
important things not happening. Unbelievers tend to have a better
success rate than believers, but that seems to be largely because their
predictions tend to be of a modest and forgettable form like the UFO
phenomenon behaving more or less as it always has with no high
consequences. When they get a little ambitious, they get cut down as
well.
I make no claim this collection is exhaustive. There are doubtless many
other predictions out there that I missed or forgot about simply
because virtually nobody can read and digest the whole UFO literature.
There is an obvious bias towards items predating the Eighties. I read
much less of the literature nowadays. I state this merely to warn
people against seeing a trend of predictions getting fewer ergo people
are wising up. That is doubtless wrong. I also tended to avoid
predictions from psychics and tabloids. I favored proclamations from
ufologists and individuals claiming direct contact with aliens. For
those who argue the UFO phenomenon extends back through history, a few
predictions associated with ancient astronauts are included to
demonstrate the ubiquity of Fetridge's Law.
Though imperfect, this collection is large enough and representative
enough to derive a number of solid conclusions and recommendations. The
aliens in the UFO phenomenon, be they those of contactees or abductees,
do not give accurate information about the future, particularly when
the information concerns matters of great concern like the destruction
of the planet, war, or profound changes in society. Whether this
indicates deception, folly, or mere error can be argued about, but the
basic upshot is that their pronouncements deserve no more weight than
the opinion of an average man in the street. Theories by ufologists,
particularly those derived from the ETH (UFOs=extraterrestrials), have
a poor track record and can be considered falsified in the sense of
showing trustworthy or practical results. You can safely ignore aliens
and ufologists in figuring out how to live your life. When they say the
world will end, don't end your own. The historical record gives you
ample precedents to judge them as unworthy of your attention.
Go
to Part 2: The List
Go to Part 3: Footnotes
Copyright 1998 The Anomalist
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